By Marty Paone
In years past it had been fairly easy to determine what legislation had to pass before the Congress could recess for the year. But in the current Capitol Hill climate, the rules on what “must pass” have changed considerably, leaving many pieces of legislation in a state of limbo at best or in complete stalemate at worst.
For example, Senate Finance Committee Chairman Baucus recently bemoaned the lack of a funding stream for a robust infrastructure/highway bill which he said is sorely needed for both the economy and the restoration of our crumbling infrastructure. He said that, at most, Congress might get a two-year transportation bill done with the shortfall funded out of general revenue. In the past, this would have been a “must pass” bill, but now, its fate is unsure.
Obviously, there will have to be some kind of action on raising the debt ceiling and there will still need to be some kind of appropriations vehicle that eventually passes to fund the government. But what those bills will look like in the end or how many short term measures will have to precede them is up for debate. Despite this unfamiliar legislative climate in Washington, some pieces of legislation still do hold a glimmer of hope for surviving all the way to the President’s desk. Here is my list for items that still have life:
1. Some form of an education bill may still be passed by the end of the year, especially with Speaker Boehner, a longtime supporter of No Child Left Behind legislation, likely to provide an influential push.
2. Expectations are also high that Congress will settle on an agreement for the Trade Adjustment Assistance bill for displaced workers, thus freeing up the stalled trade agreements with South Korea, Columbia and Panama. This could produce further trade agreements with other Asian-Pacific countries next year, like the Trans-Pacific Partnership which includes Brunei, Chile, New Zealand, and Singapore, and could potentially include Australia, Malaysia, Peru, United States and Vietnam.
3. The fall or spring of next year may bring a Farm Bill to the floor. Senator Stabenow, Chairwoman of the Senate Agriculture Committee, recently noted that many of the current Farm Bill programs expire at the end of September 2012, so legislation must be tackled in the near future.
4. Next on the list is the FAA Reauthorization and Airport and Airways Improvement Act, currently going on 20 short-term extensions. The Act’s extensions continue to fund vital transportation agencies in short-term increments, but it is possible that this short-term funding scheme may be finished before the year ends. Both Houses have passed bills and the Senate has requested a conference and appointed conferees, and preconference negotiations are ongoing.
5. Finally, in this difficult economic environment, the outgrowth of the Debt Limit negotiations could ignite some effort to revamp the tax code, particularly the corporate tax code, but don’t bet too much on a repatriation aspect (allowing companies to return to the U.S, at a lower then current tax rate, money they currently are holding overseas) being part of the deal, unless it contains a stringent requirement for domestic reinvestment. It may also entail some Medicare reform as well as other entitlements reform- the farm programs have already been mentioned. The mechanics of the deal may utilize the “Wimpy theory” of legislating: “I’ll gladly pay you Tuesday for a hamburger today,” i.e., they will get an agreement to extend the debt limit with some budget and/or tax provisions included in that bill and also lock in an agreement or some “fast track” like procedure for the other provisions, to be done at a later time, which will fulfill the remainder of the agreement.
As this list demonstrates, in this Congress, the term “must-pass” has developed a new meaning. In this climate nothing is certain as law makers must grapple with an anemic economy, high unemployment and deficits that dwarf any before seen short of a world war.